War with North Korea?

[Steel Shootin']

I have been watching the developments out of North Korea. For whatever reason, North Korea seems hell bent on starting a war with us. The rhetoric has been increasing, with this week their government proclaiming that a war with the United States would be a "nuclear war."

The incident of a couple of days ago could have been considered an act of war against the U.S., when four fighter jets flew 150 miles offshore to shadow a U.S. surveillance plane. One mig fighter locked radar onto the U.S. plane. Had the plane been shot down by North Korea, we might be engaged already in a military response.

All this comes as North Korea is openly violating it's 1994 agreement to abandon a nuclear weapons program. So why are they provoking us now? The most likely answer is that we're so focused on Iraq, and have so much of our military committed to the Middle East, that they see it as a chance to catch us while we're busy on something else. Hopefully, Russia and China will come around and provide greater political support if this provocation continues.

[f94gator]

I think they're just trying to get away with some funny business because they know damn good and well that the last thing the US wants to do is fight 2 wars at once.

[richhermes]

Honestly, what the hell provoked this?
Is this just the loony leader of North Korea??

[Steel Shootin']

I think North Korea has one goal: To be a Super Power country, surpassing, or at least equalling the might of the United States. There is only one way for them to achieve this, and that is to have nukes. They may already have one that can reach the West Coast of the United States (although it is "untested").

The U.S. is not going to allow North Korea to continue to develope it's nuclear program, and their government knows this. That being the case, North Korea likely sees our focus on Iraq as a "window of opportunity", since a confrontation will happen at some point anyway.

President Bush has been trying to pacify North Korea for the moment, given that we have so much or our military in the Middle East. The President insists that a diplomatic solution is obtainable in North Korea. However, how possible is a diplomatic solution when North Korea has no intention on stopping it's nukes, and openly provokes us?

[fernandezh]

Originally posted by Scott
I have been watching the developments out of North Korea. For whatever reason, North Korea seems hell bent on starting a war with us. The rhetoric has been increasing, with this week their government proclaiming that a war with the United States would be a "nuclear war."

Before I became a desk jockey here at Benning a few months ago I used to work with the DOD security assistance program (gov't. program that supervises economic and military aid worldwide) and was a lot better read in on global politics and situations like this. Last year I attended a conference at the National War College at Wash. D.C., and sat in on an interesting forum headed by the Under Secretary of State concerning the Korean Penninsula.

North Korea is a country with little or no natural resources and relies on foreign aid for 100% of its fossil fuels. Furthermore, being a "communist state" (communist only in name, but dictatorship is a more appropriate term) its industrial base is very limited as well. Because of these 2 factors they have electricity maybe 1 out of 3 days, no fuel to run their tractors resulting in lower agricultural output. There has been a pretty bad famine going on in that country for some time now. Every day thousands of N. Koreans try to cross the boarder into China because they are starving. If they aren't shot by their own military they are put into Chinese refuggee camps that resemble concentration camps with forced labor. The overall situation there is pretty dire to say the least.
You don't hear about it so much because this is something that the media never hears about because their travel to N. Korea is very limited.

They can't go on much longer like this and N. Korea has realized that their days are numbered for quite some time now. Because of their fuel situation they tried to build a Nuclear reactor during the mid 90's. Specifically it was what they call a "Heavy Water" Reactor. It was cheap to build and provides a lot of electricity but one by-product of such a reactor is that it's waste product is a lot of Uranium which can be enriched into weapons grade Uranium quite easily. All of a sudden, S. Korea and the USA is upset at the possibility that they can produce Nuclear weapons and asks N. Korea to stop building that reactor. N. Korea highlights they need that reactor for power.
In exchange for not building the reactor, the Clinton Administration promised to give tons of food and fuel to N. Korea and the U.S. also promised to build a light water reactor. Well, the food and fuel came through for a while but the the promise to assist with the building of a light water reactor was broken when the Bush administration came about. Furthermore, when Bush came in, most of the food and fuel aid to N. Korea was significantly reduced and the N. Korean gov't. are again finding themselves on the brink of collapse.
They have realized that in order to bring themselves out of this hole they need to make the USA think that they are going to go to war at any moment. They hope that eventually the USA will give new food and fuel grants in exchange for stability in the region. Therefore, they have been playing this game of brinksmanship for a while hoping the USA will fold. The Bush administration is very aware of what N. Korea is up to and is playing a cool hand acting like it isn't so concerned by N. Korea's actions.

Now the N. Korean army are perhaps the most insane group in the world and are more than suicidal. Several years ago a N. Korean submarine broke down and washed up on some rocks on the S. Korean shore while it was trying to deliver 5 N. Korean special forces soldiers into S. Korea on a spy mission. Well, the crew and the SF guys swam to shore. Once on shore, the SF guys lined up the sub crew and shot each one of them because they were worried that one of the crew was going to be captured and compromise their mission. Later, as each one of the SF guys were being hunted down, each one of them killed themselves just before getting caught. In my opinion, those guys are more suicidal than anybody in the middle east.

My opinions are personal and in no way reflect any positions, or policy of the u.s. government.


Hector

[webers]

I studied N. Korea for a while duing my undergrad years. Its been some time since I sifted throught declassified casaulty projetions, but even back then they were scary. World leaders are very cautious when it comes to North Korea not as much due to their having, or alleging to have, nukes, but due to their artilliary and huge (but potentially unstable) standing army. I read back then that they have the capability of hitting Seoul (and our troops) with close to 10,000 shells and tactical rockets in about an hour or two, with less than 30 minutes between the decision to fire ane the fist shell hitting. The guns and rockets are always kept at the ready. At the start, there would be little notice to the citizens of Seoul or our troops. The effect would be to level the city of Seoul, and kill hundreds of thousands, if not a million people in a very short period of time. We might loose as many as 5,000 to 10,000 trops in the first few hours or day of the battle. Over the next 2-3 months, mostly due to artiliary and bombings, we would likely kill upwards of a half a million N. Koreas, mostly military, and they would likely kill as many as 200,000 S. Korean military. If we needed to push ground troops north above the 38th, as much as 100,000 of our troops would be killed or wounded (depending on how many reinforcements of ground troops we send). This would be a very bloody fight, and there is realy no "defense" to the artiliary and bombings, on either side, short of killing the other first. In the end, we will win, but the huge numbers of artiliary pieces the N. Koreans have could take, at the least weeks, but more likely months to knock out, using our planes and our own artiliary. Anti-missile batteries like the patriot system just don't work against this kind of attack. At least when it comes to alleed Nuclear capabilities, there are variables like whether their delivery system will work, or be accurate. When it comes to their artiliary, we know it works and will hit with sufficient accuracy. Worse yet, the devastation caused in S. Korea by the artiliary and rockets would, for months after the assualt, reusult in widespread deaths due to disease, hunger, fire, localized flooding, etc. Bridges, rail and road transportation would be nocked out. Airports would be damaged. Aid would be difficult to send, and would be within range of artiliary.

All this is assuming that N. Korea's army stays north of the 38th. If it heads south of that, the casualties on both sides skyrocket. If hungry, ill-educated and downright hateful N.Korean troops take Seoul, God have mercy on its citicens. Bosnia and Croatia would look like a walk in the park. Facing that, we would likely have no choice to use tactical nuclear artiliary to repell them. At that point, that whole region could get hot, depending on China's response to our use of those weapons.

So, the N. Korea is a very different situation that Iraq or Al Quida (sp?). Since N. Korea is on the brink of collapse, and is a small (26 million), poor nation (no oil to use to buy arms), and not Muslim, I'm inclined to agree with the President's approach. Contain them, and let them die on the vine. Only take military action if they are likely to move on the South, or we see that they are actually preparing to launch a missile against our west coast. We lived for decades with nuts in the USSR pointing Nukes at us, and we can live with Korean's doing the same. In the end, we won out aginst the Russians. As the N. Korean leaders age, and their country starves, they too will fall.


Webers

[johnhermes]

Thats pretty ****ing insightful for a Vandy lawyer. Oh wait, you learned that info at UF.... :p

[fernandezh]

Why do you guys always pick on Webers? He seems like a nice guy. . . Oh yeah, I forgot he's a lawyer.:D

[f94gator]

****ing lawyers

[Steel Shootin']

Interesting replies.

So, are they just posturing in hopes of gaining aid packages or improved electrical facilities, or are they hell bent on developing a nuke program that would rival ours? If the latter, then they may be trying to provoke a military conflict. Aggressivly accousting a US plane over international waters is pretty strong posturing, if that's all they're doing.

[Steel Shootin']

Here's the latest, within the last hour: http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/03/04/nkorea.intercept/index.html

[BobK]

Seems that they'd be in a no-win situation if they actually pulled the trigger first. At this point, they probably wouldn't get much sympathy even if we preempted.
The bigger worry is China. If we did decide to take out North Korea's Nuclear weapons, reactors, and associated stuff, we'd have to be ready to use tactical nukes to contain their army. That would probably concern the neighbors, especially China. We would have to make some kind of deal with China and perhaps Russia prior to doing anything like that.

[richhermes]

Q. What's worse than diving with an attorney???

A. Marrying ONE!!!

HAHAHAHAHA!!


OK--Now back to our discussion!!

[fernandezh]

Originally posted by Scott
Interesting replies.

So, are they just posturing in hopes of gaining aid packages or improved electrical facilities, or are they hell bent on developing a nuke program that would rival ours? If the latter, then they may be trying to provoke a military conflict. Aggressivly accousting a US plane over international waters is pretty strong posturing, if that's all they're doing.


They are just posturing in hopes of gaining aid packages. There is absolutely no possibility they would have a nuke program that could ever rival ours for several reasons. First, at best they could produce only 1 small nuke every several months or so and could never come to the same number as ours (our stockpile includes hundreds of warheads). Second, they lack the missile delivery system to land one on our soil (Although they did manage to test a missile several years ago that was lobbed over Japan).

If they were ever stupid enough to blow a nuke anywhere in the world China, their only supporter left, would definitely wash their hands of the N. Koreans as long as the fighting didn't spread into Chinese Territory. The N. Koreans could never hope to win any war (conventional or nuclear) and they know it. They are going to continue this game of brinksmanship and are not going to cross the line into acts of war such as firing a missile on one of our aircraft.

I think the long term concern with N. Korea and their nuclear weapons program will be them selling the weapons grade radioactive material to other countries or terrorist groups in exchange for a lot of money. But I guarantee you that our gov't. is watching out for that like a hawk.

Again, I think this is a game of brinksmanship. If it was anything else, we would be reacting to this situation a lot differently.

Hector

[webers]

I've heard the lawyer jokes before guys. Sending the love right back at ya johnhermes.


As for N. Korea, I learned much of what is in my prior response, while I was studying at UF. It had a great poly sci dept. But, Fernandez has clearly the best access to info on N. Korea. I'd have to say that there is little, if anything we could learn from the press or current materials which could rival what he's likley had access to.

Based on what I've had access to research, I agree with fernandez, that the N. Korean military leadership, and army are probably the world's most dangerous hotheads. Since they know we are unlikely to respond in kind to "reckless" acts like shadowing out plane, they know they can be "reckless". This, makes their actions not reckless at all, but rather, calculated. As such, they can be played, and predicted.

The stakes at play makes you respect our leaders, and the stresses they must endure.

Webers

[dothanfrogman]

N Korea has always caused problems. The Iraqies target planes almost everyday, not to long ago(granted before my time) we had nukes pointed at us only 90 miles away. The gov't policy is not to give in to terror and that is all that the commys are doing is trying to terrorize us. I agree whole hearted with all of you about the fact of they are just seeing what they can possibly get in return for not firing the weapon.l

[Steel Shootin']

fernandezh, you certainly have a better historical grasp on the situation that I do, but I am not entirely convinced that it's strictly posturing.

I do agree with the logic of how poor a choice it would be for North Korea to attack, but these guys are not playing with a full deck. Over there, if you speak out against the government, you're locked away in a camp and never heard from again.

As for not being able to hit the U.S. with a nuclear weapon, I believe it was the director of the CIA who testified before a Senate Committee just a couple of weeks ago that North Korea does potentially have a nuclear weapon that could hit California at this time. It's untested, and the issue is delivery, but he swore under oath that they might have it at this time. That's some pretty sobering stuff.

Where is Reagan's "Star Wars" program when you need it? :confused:

[fernandezh]

Originally posted by Scott

As for not being able to hit the U.S. with a nuclear weapon, I believe it was the director of the CIA who testified before a Senate Committee just a couple of weeks ago that North Korea does potentially have a nuclear weapon that could hit California at this time. It's untested, and the issue is delivery, but he swore under oath that they might have it at this time. That's some pretty sobering stuff.


After saying that, the CIA director took quite a beating by many in the scientific community saying that he was exaggerating their capability. He was speaking about the Taep'o-dong-2 missile which is basically a Taep'odong 1 missile (range 2,500 km) with a beefed up second stage. Yes this missile is totally untested and it is unlikely they would risk losing 1 of there 2 untested nuclear weapons in an untested missile. It is more likely they would use the weapons either as a weapon of last resort (as they are losing a war and destroying a portion of their country in a "scorched earth" policy), or in a tactical deployment on a Korean Penninsula battlefield. Furthermore, the payload size of this missile is very small and it is very doubtful the N. Korean nuclear weapons program is advanced enough to make a nuclear weapon small enough to fit onto the missile. It took the USA 20 years and billions of dollars (far more resources than N. Korea has) to develop such a small and functional nuclear device. N. Korean ICBM missile technology has yet to get off the ground.

I spoke with a former girlfriend in Washington who is a military/political analyist in a think-tank there recently and she has the same feelings about what is going on. She was a hottie, but we broke up because she had a drinking problem.

Again, My personal and not professional take on this.

[johnhermes]

Scott a Reaganite, damn, I cannot believe it.

[GROUPER55]

Man, you guys have me all flustered now...Im not reading this post again until I get back to Kunsan. Everything that I have been briefed on and taken in from the situation is exactly like the Capt has stated, they are still using the negotiating tactics from the old "communist" stances. Negotiation by intimidation. The Clinton admin folded under this strain and gave them what they wanted in '94 and as fernadez was saying promised a light water reactor in return for their freezing of their original heavy water reactor.....in which is a whole load of bullshit anyhow, because it is known that the system that they have set up there with that particular reactor is not being utilized for heating/electicity....Futhermore the little ****s never did freeze their nuclear research as agreed upon. I do not really worry about a "first hit" from the NKF's, but they are one of the largest exporters of missles/missle technology in the world, you know them little ****ers would love to send a warhead to a looney sob the like of i.e. Al Queda and let them do the dirty work. As for war...knock on wood..the thing that scared me about situations like the recent one with the RC-135 plane and migs is that if they would have shot that ****ing plane down...I would put money on something retalitory from us within 48 hrs. I was there a couple of weeks ago when the mig crossed the border...even as brief as it was we had ****ing F-16's taking off, bumper to bumper for a good 30 minutes afterwords, it was unerving. Im stationed a hour and half South of Seoul of course out of the arty range, but it will only take a "Scud type" of missle "which they have thousands of" 6 minutes to get to my base.....never will be enough time to hear the alarm and get into your chem gear...which is a whole nother ****ing mess, their amount of that shit...it won't be conventional missles and arty.....just say a prayer that our leaders and the leader of that ****ing country figure out how to settle this....and for the safety of the troops not just over there, but deployed all over the world...

[richhermes]

OK, this shit is scary.

[100days-a-year]

Why not drop a warhead in the middle of the countries most industrialised areas by parachute with a timer attached and a note saying you have exactly 30 days to comply with our requests.This message will self destruct in 5 seconds.Even a dud would get the point across.I am a "big stick" foreign policy fan.My family is full of men who fought various enemies of our country thru the years.I've never heard a single time in our history where rewarding fanatacism and despotism has paid off with anything but a longer war as the antagonists were given more time to prepare.

[Cock's Roost]

Grouper55 my little brother and cousin are knee deep in camel shit over in the desert right now. I just wanted to say God love you guys and take care. Remember there is a whole grateful country waiting for you guys to come home safe. Fernandezh this applies to you also even though you have been relegated to being a poge:D hell I don't even know how to spell it, just ****ing with ya take care guys.
Steel on Steel

[Steel Shootin']

I second the senitment of appreciation to you guys. Your fellow steel slingers are damn proud of you.

P.S.: Here is the latest. Good move by the President. http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/03/04/n.korea.bombers/index.html

[greyface]

HERE! HERE!

[Screen Name]

and Fernandez........Man you guys are some awesome human beings. :) I want to buy you both a beer at the Spearboard beer bash next weekend.

Stay safe G55. We are going to need someone to haggle with once Buccaneers season starts up again! :D

[fernandezh]

Originally posted by GROUPER55
Futhermore the little ****s never did freeze their nuclear research as agreed upon. . . I do not really worry about a "first hit" from the NKF's, but they are one of the largest exporters of missles/missle technology in the world, you know them little ****ers would love to send a warhead to a looney sob the like of i.e. Al Queda and let them do the dirty work. ...even as brief as it was we had ****ing F-16's taking off, bumper to bumper for a good 30 minutes afterwords, it was unerving......never will be enough time to hear the alarm and get into your chem gear...which is a whole nother ****ing mess, their amount of that shit...it won't be conventional missles and arty.....just say a prayer that our leaders and the leader of that ****ing country figure out how to settle this....and for the safety of the troops not just over there, but deployed all over the world...

Said like a True NCO. I coudn't have put it better. I love you guys !!! :D

[fernandezh]

Originally posted by richhermes
OK, this shit is scary.

Those of us on the east coast don't have anything to worry about, at the very worst California might go up in a thermonuclear fireball but not us. (Those of you out in Cali. Please don't take me seriously) I don't even think it'll affect spearfishing. Does that help sleep any better any Rich? For those of you in California. What can I say?



Cock's Roost,
Yeah I admit it I am a pogue. The hardest part of my day is turning on my coffee maker at the office. Back when I was in a line unit we used to have a saying, "If you ain't Infantry you are supporting the infantry. If you ain't an Athlete you are an Athletic Supporter."

[Cock's Roost]

Hey brother there ain't nothing wrong with starting the day out that way. The problem is if your anything like my brother and cousin once a warrior always a warrior. You guys are always willing to go never a second thought!!!!!!