hogfish assessment workshop

[Denny]

There is a Hogfish Assessment workshop being held in Tampa on January 27-29. At this time, workshop members are on the third and final step of the data review. Mr. Ault will be there, as will representatives fron the Gulf and South Atlantic councils, FWC, commercial interests and recreational interests. The workshop will most likely be conducted in a somewhat open forum, accepting audience comments where appropriate.
We need to get the data and figures that were presented by kitefisherman and others into the hands of the workshop participants.
See the GoliathGrouper Assessment workshop thread. They are discussing goliath numbers there also.
Plan on attending at least one day.
I understand that many of the attendees are aware of and even reading SPEARBOARD. Here is our chance to have a clear, rational voice to represent our concerns. Let's make the most of it. It's about the future of our sport and the future of our children's sport.

[Dive4Blood]

Count me in.

[Spearchucker]

Oh, I will be there, most definetely

[Denny]

Spearchucker- I assume that you will bring the dancin' girls and hookers, as usual?

[Spearchucker]

Stoppin at the Mons on the way!

[Grauer]

Are these meetings held during the day or in the evenings?
I would be able to be present if it is after normal working hours.

[Screen Name]

I'll meet you guys there.

[Ed Walker]

"From 1992 to 2001, 82% of the commercial hogfish landings and 66% of the recreational hogfish landings occurred in Monroe" Mr Ault reccomeds that everyone in the state be limited to a single, unreasonably large hogfish......Ill most certainly be there with a pocket full of facts, stats, and records showing this report for what it really is... a big lie molded by a biased or hopelessly inept scientist. The truth will prevail.

[mpick]

I did a little checking on Mr Ault and here is what Mr ault has to say about His Research Interests:

"My research centers on theoretical and applied population and community dynamics for fishery assessment and management in tropical marine ecosystems. Requirements for fishery management have fundamentally changed so that fruitful areas of research now transcend the bounds of traditional assessment theory and new approaches must be explored. The fishery management system is a new approach to integrate quantitative techniques in population dynamics, sampling design, fish stock assessment, operations research, biometrics, numerical modeling, scientific visualization, and management science in a computer- based expert decision support system to provide cost-effective high-precision fish stock assessments and short-term fishery forecasts. In support of my analytical approach, I conduct regional fishery-independent field assessment studies on multispecies coral reef fish communities, pink shrimp, bonefish, tarpon, billfishes and tunas that are focused on the biophysical linkages reflected in fish ontogenetic migratory behaviors to better quantify optimal sampling surveys and define underlying empirical mechanisms in population dynamics and spatial grouping. I am also interested in exploring means of taking structure into account in population and community models and building spatially-explicit coupled biological-physical models of coastal ocean ecosystems both to understand the forces driving recruitment variability and to improve resource prediction and the prospects for sustainability."

Now does that tell you where his head is. I wish I had the right smiley

[Denny]

I will be in attendance for the entire workshop. Taking notes. Each night you will see highlights of that day's discussions.

[RichT]

What the heck did he say?
Does anybody here speak,or translate government scientist?
Is it just me?

[Denny]

This is Sci-speak. It makes one appear to be a member of the 'intlelligencia'. Kind of a verbal tuxedo, so to speak.
With the right shovel, you can dig through to the real meaning (usually). Often times the real meaning is to justify one's own position or being, nothing more. At any cost to others.

[mpick]

What he said IMO is

If I use enough big words maybe I won't have to have any facts to back up my theory. Maybe I can continue to get paid for my BS just by writing in a language that is ambiguous at best.

One of the first courses I had to take in college was Technical Writing. My professor taught me that if you have something important to say make sure you say it in a language that is understood, otherwise people will think you are full of it. Not quit a quote but I am sure eveybody understand.

I believe there is a lesson in here for Mr Ault somewhere.

[BluewaterRocket]

I think the operative word in his description is "theoretical". It's obvious he's not left terra firma and strapped on a tank to check out the hogfish stock.

[mpick]

I talked with two different people with MBA's and they both said that in their opinion there was a lot more time and money spent on the statiscal theory than on the collection of data..

One also asked who on any of the commission could understand what his report said. He said it is a very sophisticated set of statistical analysies and he doubted very much if there was anyone on any of the commissions that could understand any of his anlysis.

They both said they doubted very much that the report was written so that it could be understood. It was prepared to impress rather than educate and that is what we are up against.

We will need to collect the data to prove that this report is nothing more then an over zealous exercise in statistical academia. And it has nothing to do with the real world or the real state of the hogfish fishery.
Lets stay busy and get all the info we can from ourselves and any tourney records

[WreckDiver]

Usefull? I have the PDF file if anyone needs it.
HOGFISH BIOLOGY AND STOCK STATUS Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission Division of Marine Fisheries November 2003 SPECIES DESCRIPTION The Florida hogfish (Lachnolaimus maximus) is an important member of the reef fish complex. Though commonly referred to as “hog-snapper”, the species is a member of the wrasse family, not the snapper family. Hogfish are protogynous hermaphrodites, beginning life as females and transforming to males as they grow older and larger. Like many groupers, they also have a harem mating system in which a single male mates with a spawning group of several females. The maximum reported sizes for hogfish are 35.8 inches and 22 pounds. Maximum observed age for hogfish is 23 years. THE FISHERY Hogfish are most commonly caught in south Florida and the Florida Keys, but are also frequently landed along Florida’s Gulf coast, particularly the Big Bend region. They are primarily sought after in reef habitats, where they are vulnerable to spearfishing by divers, but are also captured by hook-and-line anglers and commercial fishermen using fish traps. Between 1985 and 2001, total annual landings averaged 348,477 pounds, with the recreational fishery accounting for approximately 77% of the annual harvest (272,065 lbs). Commercial landings occur primarily in Monroe County and along the west coast. From 1992 to 2001, 82% of the commercial hogfish landings and 66% of the recreational hogfish landings occurred in Monroe Summary and Staff Recommendation: Hogfish (hog snapper), an important reef species in southern Florida and the Florida Gulf Coast, was the subject of a stock assessment by University of Miami scientists working pursuant to a contract from the Florida Marine Research Institute. The scientists concluded that the annual rate of harvest is excessive (overfishing) and that the spawning stock is depleted (overfished). Staff recommends reviewing the assessment through the new federal SEDAR (Southeast Data, Assessment, and Review) process and subsequently beginning joint rulemaking with the two federal Councils so that regulations are the same within all jurisdictions.
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2County and along the Gulf coast. Since 1994, when a 12-inch fork length minimum size limit was established, total annual landings of hogfish have declined from nearly 600,000 pounds to approximately 200,000 pounds. REGULATIONS In July 1994, Florida implemented a 12-inch fork length minimum size limit and a five-fish recreational bag limit for hogfish. The federal councils later adopted the same regulations. Hogfish were also designated as a “restricted species,” requiring commercial fishermen to meet certain income requirements from the sale of saltwater products in order to harvest and sell hogfish. Hook-and-line and spears are the only allowable gear for harvesting hogfish in state waters. In the Gulf of Mexico, hogfish are also harvested in reef fish traps, allowable in the federal waters. However, this gear will be prohibited in February 2007. Federal reef fish permits are required for the commercial harvest of hogfish and other reef fish species, such as snappers and groupers. The importation and sale of hogfish less than 12 inches fork length (FL) is prohibited. RESEARCH FINDINGS During 1995 - 1999, Florida Marine Research Institute (FMRI) staff investigated the life history of hogfish from southern Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The intent of the research study was to collect information that would allow a quantitative examination of hogfish stock status. Results of the study indicated that all hogfish began life as females, eventually becoming males if they lived long enough. Hogfish less than the 12-inch minimum size limit were almost exclusively female. Half of the females were mature by 7 inches FL and half the males at 15 inches FL. Hogfish greater than 25-26 inches were exclusively male. Spawning occurred during February to June, peaking in March. The study also compared hogfish from the eastern Gulf of Mexico with hogfish from the Florida Keys and found that eastern Gulf of Mexico hogfish live longer (23 vs. 13 years), experience lower rates of mortality, and are larger at a common age. The author surmised that this might be due to higher fishing pressure in South Florida. STOCK ASSESSMENT In April 2003, University of Miami staff at the Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, operating pursuant to a contract with FMRI, completed a stock assessment of hogfish. Three different types of assessment models were used to evaluate the status of the stock. All three models yielded similar results and concluded that hogfish were undergoing overfishing, i.e., the annual fraction of the population being harvested was
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3too high. Fishing mortality rates were estimated to be four times higher than sustainable levels. The assessment also concluded that the hogfish spawning stock was overfished. The spawning potential ratio for hogfish is only about 9% of that of an unfished population, and was only 26% of the level needed to generate maximum sustainable yield. In other words, the biomass of mature hogfish currently is 9% of the size of an unexploited hogfish population, and it needs to increase nearly fourfold in order to have the reproductive capacity necessary to produce maximum sustainable yield. The authors recommend a substantial increase in minimum size. They also note that spear fishers, both recreational and commercial, are the principal harvesters. STAFF RECOMMENDATION Staff proposes to submit the hogfish stock assessment prepared by the University of Miami to the SEDAR process now being used at the federal level to conduct and review assessments, and to implement coordinated state and federal rulemaking subsequent to that review. The SEDAR process was developed by the National Marine Fisheries Service’s Southeast Science Center in Miami in conjunction with the two federal councils. The process is designed to establish a thorough review of assessments and the data supporting them. It also enhances understanding and acceptance of findings, and resulting management actions. Because hogfish are jointly managed by Florida, the Gulf of Mexico Fishery Management Council and the South Atlantic Fishery Management Council, it is important to get all three entities to agree on the assessment’s conclusions and then adopt the same management regulations. The principal harvest area, the Florida Keys, lies within all three jurisdictions and the regulations there need to be the same. However, when all three agencies work independently, they often end up with conflicting regulations. It is likely to take at least six months to get a joint council SEDAR review, and additional time to develop a common regulation strategy. However, staff will initiate state rulemaking as soon as a likely regulatory framework is developed by all three management entities.

[WreckDiver]

Hogfish stock assessment/SEDAR reports

(Note: the 2003 hogfish stock assessment report has not yet been peer-reviewed. It is scheduled for review at a SEDAR Assessment Review Workshop in Tampa, Florida January 27-29, 2004)
http://www.gulfcouncil.org/downloads.htm

[webers]

I plan to be at the meetings.

This week, thanks to the introduction of another member of my firm, I met with contact who is full time NMFS/ commercial fishing lobbyist out of DC and WA. He is very effective representing the longline and other commercial fleets on the west coast (CA) and up around Alaska. He has years of experience dealing with the Congress, NMFS, and Dept. of Commerce on these issues. As long as this does not impact his west coast and Alaska clients, he is willing to help. I'll know the answer to the conflict issue next week. He is checking into it. After he does I'll introduce him to everyone. If he can help: He is going to prep me for the meetings. And, in the future, if we ever get an organization funded, we may be able to get him to travel and attend the meetings for us. He has tons of data dealing with the commercial/ recreational/ left wing envoronmental isues. His insights have been eye opening.

So far, he has suggested we (1) tap somone to lobby the appropriate person at the Dept. of Commerce. He is going to ge t me that contact info; and (2) have somone contact the Governors's office and do the same. The political higher ups need to know that this is of concern. We can't count on the FWC or NMFS to pass along our concern. Quite the oppposite. They will try to burry it.

My contact is going to draft us a lobbying strategy and a cost/time estimate for the tasks needed to acomplish successful lobbying befor the the NMFS and regional councils. Over the next few weeks I'm going to work with him on gertign it ready. I'm expecting that it will be of significat help in providing us a "battle plan".

Can't wait to tap this guy as an ally. One thing I learned, he keeps a boat on the Potomach and frequently uses it to go for bat rides while discussing the isues with the poswers that be. He suggests we use our access to the water to do the same.

P.S., He wants to learn to spear fish.

Webers

[Shooter Dan]

I'll be there. Sound like we'll have more there than showed up a the Green Iguana. BTW, D4B - why weren't you there my friend? You did start the thread.

I'll be at the meeting with shaft in hand!:D

[BluewaterRocket]

More good info from Michael Carmichael from SAFMC. This is his response to my concerns regarding any University of Miami faculty/staff/students acting as a panelist on the assessment:

---------------------------------------
Jim,

This is actually the first assessment reviewed through SEDAR that was produced by a University. Prior assessments were products of NMFS/State collaborations, through the entire SEDAR workshop process, and one (Yellowtail Snapper) was the primary responsiblity of the FL agency, but which also followed all three workshops through NMFS organization. As I understand things, the Hogfish assessment was prepared by Ault through a grant from FL, and FL requested that SEDAR provide an indpendent review. In my experience, all prior CIE representatives have been from the international community - e.g., scientists from Universities in New Zealand, the UK, and agencies in Canada. CIE primarily provides international participants because few in the US really meet the strict conflict of interest requirements. I expect that anyone associated with the University of Miami would not be eligible since the University recieves funds from NOAA/NMFS for research, and since having someone review the work of a co-worker or employee would easily lead to conflict of interest. Given the concerns you have raised and the potential controversy surrounding this review, if the CIE nominates anyone from within the University, or with any potential close ties to the authors for that matter, I will certainly do everything possible to request another reviewer.

[Dangerous]

Gulf of Mexico Fishery Management Council
Policy on External Comment/Analysis of NMFS Stock Assessments Prepared for the Council
In the event that any association or organization has a scientist or scientific group comment on or
analyze a National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) stock assessment for which the Council may
use as a basis for setting total allowable catch (TAC) (and associated management measures) and
the association or organization would like the Council’s management committee to review their
analysis and comments when they review the NMFS stock assessment and the stock assessment
panel (SAP) report; that association or organization must provide their analysis to the Council at
least 14 days prior to the SAP meeting. If for any reason that is not possible, the association or
organization should immediately advise the Council Executive Director, who will confer with the
Council Chairman on whether to accept the analysis or delay acceptance to a later date when such
reviews by the SAP and subsequently the Scientific and Statistical Committee (SSC) are possible.
This policy in no way is intended to constrain any person testifying before the Council from
presenting information on NMFS stock assessments either by written testimony or oral testimony
under the time constraints of such testimony. This policy is conditional upon the NMFS stock
assessments being available six weeks in advance of the SAP meeting, and thereby available to the
association or organization for review and comment.

[Denny]

Good heads up, Dangerous.
Let's all watch the calendar as we move closer to the meeting. The Council and workshop members should be given the time to review and consider our positions and comments.

[Ed Walker]

Heres a letter I got back from Mr Carmicheal: Pretty much lays out how its gonna be at the meeting. It definitley not going to a forum for a lot of public comment.

Captain Walker,

I received your messages, however I am out of the office this week so responding is a challenge. SEDAR materials for the review workshop will be posted to the website : http://www.sefsc.noaa.gov/sedar.jsp, sometime in the next two weeks. The only documents I have for Hogfish are Dr. Aults assessment and two research papers, all of which at this time can be downloaded from the Gulf of Mexico Fishery Managment Council's website. If you would like paper copies, I will put your name on the distribution list for the panel, however the mailing will not likely occur until early January.

SEDAR workshops are open to the public. The chair of the workshops will call on the public to provide comment on various specific issues as the need arises. The Review Workshop is largely technical, designed to provide an impartial scientific review of the analysis. When Review Panels feel that assessments are not based on reliable data, or do not include all relevant data sources, they have the option of rejecting the assessment and sending it back for further work. One thing the SEDAR Review Workshop does not do is develop management options. Managment actions are developed through the Council process, with additional opportunities for public involvement and feedback.

Although you may wish to bring the equipment and offer to show the video informally for those who may not be satisfied with words alone, I do not expect an opportunity to display video as an official part of the meeting. I hope this is not perceived as an attempt to stifle public comment, but information presented formally to the review panel needs to be of a technical nature and submitted through the scientific process.

I encourage you and others to attend the workshop and view the proceedings, and be prepared to offer clear and concise comments on issues that may arise. Your testimony will be most effective if directed at specific items with which you disagree, and it seems as if this is how you are proceeding. Scientific disagreements are not resolved based on opinion alone, whether between laymen such as yourselves or the scientists. Any published reports you can find to support your position will go a long way to ensuring credibility.

John Carmichael

[Denny]

We are most effective when we play by the rules. At least having Rich Taylor on the panel would assure us that the scientific rational used in the FINAL assessment is correct. A large presence is none the less important. A large, informed, interested presence. Gotta do your homework, kids. You will be able to get a crash course on the science before Christmas, (Stay tuned, Stay stoked) but you need to hit the books now.

[webers]

We should consider doing whatever is necessary to be able to submit something in writing to be reviewed at the workshop. This needs to be done in advance in acordance with the rules. We need to start by getting something in the record. If the Ault study is unopposed with respect to written data to be reviewed, we leave our cause unrepresented. It may be just all to easy for them to conclude that, they will not accept our anecdotal statements, and that since the Hogfish Study by Ault is the only data in the record, that's all that is being considered. If that's the case, the lack of conflicting materials will be used as a defacto enorsement of the Ault study.

[RichT]

I was just sent some very interesting data this morning concerning hogfish.
It was records from the St. Pete Open during the 1980's!
An example of some of this data showed that 1983 hogfish first place was 8 pounds.The average weight of all hogs weighed was 2.5 pounds.1984 had a 5.15 pound winner and a 2.2 pound average.
1985 had a 5.15 winner and a2.4 pound average.1986 had a 4.09 winner and a2.4 pound average.1987 had a 10.13 winner and a 2.3 pound average.
Compare this with the results from the last 4 St. Pete Opens and you will see a
HUGE difference.
The largest fish average for the last four years is in the upper teens and an overall average near the teens.
I think people were diving the grounds at this time,but even if they werent, the averages are very similar if not better now, than they were then.

[bheath]

I have a marine biologist friend in the Keys working for NOAA, and asked him to review the report and let me know his thoughts. This is an excerpt from an email today:

His response:
"I read through the hogfish report. I have some pretty strong questions about their methodology and their results and discussion. The interesting thing is that I was at the Sanctuary Advisory Council meeting yesterday and that report came up during the FMRI portion and they admitted there are several flaws with the report and they are going back and
redoing major portions of it."

My response:
On the hogfish assessment report, could you please provide more info on what the Sanctuary Advisory Council is, member types, and responsibilities related to Florida fisheries? Also what is the "FMRI portion", and who admitted the flaws and who is to redo the report, and any timeline?

His response:
"The Florida Marine Research Institute is a State run branch of Marine research Institutions/ Labortories. They are under the Florida Fish and Wildife Conservation Commission. A commission of five (I believe) members in Talahassee. The fellow who said the report had flaws and they were going to go back into
it was Mr. John Hunt, head of the Marathon lab here in the Keys. I can try to get you a copy of the meetings minutes when they come out. The Santuary has no jurisdiction over fisheries what so ever. We are empowered to create no take zones, however. Fisheries fall under two catagories. Within State waters, it is up to FMRI to make and enforce fisheries laws. On the Federal side, fisheries is managed by the National Marine Fisheries Service, which is a division of NOAA, under the Department of Commerce.
Different Division than the one I am in. I am under the National Ocean Service (NOS) within NOAA. I would like to re read the report, but I did have some problems with their samplng protocols (i.e. the SCUBA Stationary Cylinder method) and the ramp intersection survey methods. In addition, there are few papers and studies about hogfish. The is a first
step, and with all first steps, there is a lot to learn from it and about it, but a step nonetheless. I think another main flaw is the failure to recognize fish trap impacts as well.

Quote from this Wed. Keynoter fishing report. Go to www.keynoter.com and check out the fishing report. "In just the past week, we have heard reports of mutton snapper up to 15 pounds caught within a mile of land on a regular basis. There is a great deal of baitfish close to shore right now and many species of fish will be in there to feed on them. Good lane and mangrove snapper have also been taken along with quite a few hogfish on live shrimp in the same areas"



So it seems that some of the scientific community is starting to see errors in the report. Not sure when the report revisions will take place, or how it will affect the SEDAR process.

Brent

[Ed Walker]

Originally posted by bheath
the FMRI portion and they admitted there are several flaws with the report and they are going back and
redoing major portions of it."

Brent

How many tries does Mr MBA get to get it right? If you ask me the fact that they have to go back and "re-do" major portions of it should be enough to throw the whole thing in the trash can. You'd think that if you're suggesting new laws that affect all Floridians, you would try to have it right the first time.

[300psi]

Does anyone know the location and times of the "Hogfish Assessment workshop being held in Tampa on January 27-29"?

[Denny]

I'll have that posted for you early next week. Probably the Tampa Airport Hilton.

[Ed Walker]

You the man James. Heres the link to the entire highly controversial "Ault Hogfish Assessment". Your knowledge and input would be greatly appreciated. http://bonefish.rsmas.miami.edu/femar/Publications/hogfish_stock_assessment_2003.pdf