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Old 07-26-2014, 11:35 AM   #1
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Oregon coast viz predictors

Launching this thread for a group effort to develop our knowledgebase on Oregon coast viz predictors. Such as:

o periods of lower absolute tidal exchanges, especially for BV
o periods of low wave-energy ratings as seen on surf-forecast.com, i.e. less shore bottom churn, less crap in the water
o periods when the Columbia river plume is NOT swept southward
o forecast or near-real-time websites that may be promising for further investigation, such as MODIS satellite reflectance, or Columbia River salinity maps (that show where the nutrient-rich, dirty plume is going - north, or south toward our dive sites.) or ocean color maps, or chlorophyll maps...
o wisdom from expert observers such as Tomo and others

...and here's my first offering... http://nvs.nanoos.org/Explorer shows Columbia River plume as of today as indicated by brackish water, if it's headed south, near-shore, then that's bad for viz logically, both in terms of suspended silt and nutrients that feed viz-killing algaes and other micro-critters. This near-real-time image shows the plume is near-shore and trending south pretty strongly, which makes sense given the recent current (1st order driver of plume) and wind patterns (2nd order).

Now I'm off to BV to see if crap is as bad as the plume would indicate or if the low wave-energy recent past has made up for it. Not hopeful as Tolovana was crap this morning via phone report.
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Old 07-27-2014, 11:39 PM   #2
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Re: Oregon coast viz predictors

... and here's the chlorophyll levels which should be another factor for viz. However, the only one I could find is a 14 day average, which is not very useful vs same day or a few days would be. It is interesting that chlorphylls are much higher near shore.
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Old 07-28-2014, 09:39 AM   #3
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Re: Oregon coast viz predictors

The Tuna fishing nutters have some good apps and websites that indicate chlorophyll, turbidity, etc that they monitor since Tuna like warm, clear water. It might be a good idea to see what they use (I have no idea, just heard in conversation) and see if it can apply to our uses as well.

Another factor that I would include in the causes for poor viz would be rain: frequency (rain with huge breaks flushes a lot of junk into the water), and volume. Just because it's summer doesn't mean that we can't keep an eye on the clouds.
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Old 07-28-2014, 10:59 PM   #4
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Re: Oregon coast viz predictors

I think Leigh ought to buy a house on the coast and go diving every day to check the vis and then file a report every evening on Spearboard.
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Old 07-28-2014, 11:27 PM   #5
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Re: Oregon coast viz predictors

LOL, ok i admit I'm a dataholic.
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Old 02-18-2015, 08:44 PM   #6
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Re: Oregon coast viz predictors

The dataholic returns. hahaha...
I found a 24 hr forecast for the Columbia River plume (i.e. where the clear as mud river water is going after it hits the ocean.) I think will be useful for knowing when viz will be bad for Oregon north diving (or Westport for you WA spearos). It may not tell you when viz is good but I think the inverse is likely true.

http://www.stccmop.org/datamart/virt...iver/forecasts shows the plume as low-salinity color maps, the blue-er the more plumey/dirtier the water. Right now it's trending north away from our North Oregon spots. Yay!

It's even animated. A zoomed out version on the left so you can see how far the plume goes, and a zoomed in animated version in the middle.

A very long term study of the Columia plume showed seasonal patterns:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/1...04964/abstract

"... seasonal variability around two known trends: a coastaly-attached northward winter plume and a detached [[yay!]] southward summer plume. Results show significant interannual variability of the plume orientation and extent... Short-term bidirectional plumes can also occasionally develop in winter as a result of episodically strong upwelling-favorable winds."

The attached pics show a typical winter northward plume trend close in-shore, and a typical summer southward plume trend, fortunately typically more offshore.


Leigh

More geeky stuff from the summary:
[47] Our results proved consistent with those reported in observational studies [Hickey et al., 1998, 2005; Thomas and Weatherbee, 2006], confirming the ability the SELFE model to reproduce important features of the behavior of the CR plume. Our simulations were able to reproduce the variability around the two basic structures traditionally known for the CR plume [Barnes et al., 1972; Hickey et al., 1998, 2005]: a winter plume oriented northward and hugging the coast, and a summer plume oriented southwestward and extending offshore, separated from the Oregon coast. We identified, and confirmed through a EOF analysis, the two basic structures described by Hickey et al. [1998] for the plume during fall and winter: a thicker, weakly stratified plume that orients northward and is attached to the coast during periods of strong winds to the north; and a thin, strongly stratified plume oriented west to northwestward during wind relaxation periods or when wind stress turns to the south. The extent to which each pattern explains the winter variability of the plume in the eight years we analyzed closely matched what found by Hickey et al. [1998] during only one winter season (1990–1991), indicating the generality of that result. We also showed, with an EOF analysis of the salinity field in the summer months that the result of a prevalent bidirectional structure for the CR plume in that season [Hickey et al., 2005; Liu et al., 2009a] holds true regardless of interannual variability.

[48] We further found that a bidirectional plume, with branches both north and south of the river mouth, can occur also in the winter season. In their analysis of CR plume variability from multispectral satellite data, Thomas and Weatherbee [2006] concluded that CR plume waters south of the river mouth are a relatively rare occurrence in winter. Garcia-Berdeal et al. [2002] suggested, with numerical experiments, the difficulty for the plume to reverse direction during winter because of an ambient flow having the same direction as the natural rotational tendency due to Coriolis. Nonetheless, our simulations would suggest that, during the 8 year period we considered, there were wind events that were capable of generating in winter the same bidirectional plume observed by Hickey et al. [2005] in summer. Observations at the ogi01 buoy, which is located on the Oregon midshelf along the 100 m isobath about 30 km southwest of the river mouth, confirmed reversals of the CR plume during winter.
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Old 02-19-2015, 02:11 AM   #7
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Re: Oregon coast viz predictors

I think that you are spending way too much time trying to analyze this. You would be better off spending this time getting wet and learning how to dive in shitty conditions. Personally, I am fairly comfortable in any conditions, such as 2-4 feet and can usually still salvage some fish even when the vis sucks.

Stop worrying so much about the vis, and just go diving when you have time/the conditions allow

my 2 cents.
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Old 02-19-2015, 02:48 AM   #8
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Re: Oregon coast viz predictors

haha true that Cliff. I've had a ling cod nearly slap me in the face with his tail one time i was creeping along in the murk at BV. like I said I'm a dataholic tho.

And not everyone has the amazing bottom loiter time you have you studly free diver :-)

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Old 02-19-2015, 09:41 AM   #9
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Re: Oregon coast viz predictors

Here's what the tuna nutters use. The satellites need no cloud cover to get a good reading, so this works about 5% of the time here on the N. OR Coast. This is the free version, there are better paid versions that try to fill in the cloud cover gaps.
http://www.tempbreak.com/index.php?&cwregion=or
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Old 02-19-2015, 10:18 AM   #10
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Re: Oregon coast viz predictors

To add to the data porn, I stumbled across this website:

https://www.windyty.com/?surface,win...943,-123.035,4

It shows wind intensity and direction (localized wind direction), for just about anywhere on earth. If nothing else, it looks really cool.
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Old 02-20-2015, 01:35 PM   #11
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Re: Oregon coast viz predictors

Lol I was just giving you a hard time :P

If you guys ever figure out a way to consistently predict via, that would be super awesome

And haha I wish I had awesome bottom times to loiter around... I am just a well below average free diver tho. Nothing like some of the guys on here
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Old 08-02-2015, 02:40 PM   #12
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Re: Oregon coast viz predictors

I've validated with enough samples now that www.Terrafin.com's high-resolution chlorophyll (aka Plankton density) charts are the silver bullet I've been looking for. Is $99/yr I subscribed for tuna reason, but these charts are also a great shore viz predictor due to it's high-resolution and timeliness, combined with the daily columbia plume charts are quite predictive of shoreline viz. http://www.stccmop.org/datamart/virt...iver/forecasts (Free).

BTW - cloud/fog prevents the satellite from getting chlorphyll data. That's why it's not a golden bullet, just a silver one. The high-res daily charts go down to less than 1 mile by 1 mile patch of ocean, all the way to the beach. So it even shows the difference between say Tolovana rock to the beach vs a mile offshore of the rock. More detail on Chlorophyll at http://www.terrafin.com/sstview/chlorhelp.php
Another way I've validated these high-res chlorophyll charts is by calling the San Diego Lifeguard hotline, which has daily diving visibility reports, vs the San Diego chart.

BTW - if someone wants to subscribe to Terrafin, consider putting my email in the "referred by" field so i can earn referral credit of 2 months of service... (mrleighanderson atsign gmail)

BTW - plankton is just f'ed right now, all the way from near the Calif border to Vancouver Island. Even the west coast of Vancouver Island is just horrifically bad, almost off the chart and it's a log-scale of density! see the Oregonian article on the warm water 'blob'. http://www.oregonlive.com/environmen...ed-environment On our recent tuna run off Astoria, we spotted a sunfish (aka Mola Mola), a warm water fish usually.

So, what I'm going to do for Oregon-North shore and for Neah Bay, is post a clear water alert when I see a good chart. No promises on when, eg I'm in Germany most of October. I won't post the charts themselves to honor the terms of subscription, and Terrafin team are good guys, super responsive to issues and enhancement requests.
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Old 08-04-2015, 06:24 AM   #13
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Re: Oregon coast viz predictors

Good morning Leigh,
Like a tuna rising to the chum, I can't help but ask what your data says about Barview for today? If it sounds like there is any hope I will check it out and see how it lines up with technology. Thanks.
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Old 08-04-2015, 09:39 AM   #14
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Re: Oregon coast viz predictors << columbia mud plume vs plankton

Regards the causal relationship between the direction of the Columbia River Plume (70 degree warm muddy water right now) and plankton, a side-by-side comparison with hi-res chlorophyll chart is pretty damning re the plume feeding plankton bloom and lowering viz. Hope the prevailing north-to-south current reverses sooner than later as we get closer to usual winter reversal, or the plume returns to the usual better Oregon coastal separation before then.

http://www.stccmop.org/images/foreca...2015-08-17.gif << plume status here

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Old 08-29-2015, 12:39 AM   #15
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Re: Oregon coast viz predictors

Regards El Nino, it looks grim for wayyyy below average precip and snowpack for the Pac NW through spring '16, higher than average air and sea temps. skiers may be crying in their beer. We may be using 5mm suits in the winter on the coast. Dorado and yellowtail off Oregon? who knows. We've already had Albacore within ~20 miles.

NOAA just stated:
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
El Niño conditions are present.*
Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across
most of the Pacific Ocean.
There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through
Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 85% chance it will last
into early spring 2016. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

All year, predictions of a strong El Niño have been getting firmer from the world’s state meteorological bodies, and now the consensus is almost 100 percent. Most analysts believe that this fall will bring a strong El Niño, strong enough to rival historically significant and disruptive events like the one of 1997-1998, and perhaps, according to NOAA, the strongest on record. Anomalous sea surface temperature readings — the main way that meteorologists gauge a developing El Niño — have already gotten extreme, with plenty of warm water where the cool water should be:
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