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Old 04-07-2014, 07:06 PM   #1
LookPointShoot
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ENSO Update

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/enso/...mparison.shtml

Quick rundown: things look very similar to how they looked in 97, except they're happening a month earlier. If anything, this developing potential El Nino looks slightly stronger than that one (which was the strongest El Nino since reliable records started about 30 years ago.) Usually, the earlier an El Nino starts developing, the stronger it will be.

Despite all signs looking like a big El Nino is developing, this will remain only a potential El Nino until the water starts to warm up off Ecuador. The earliest this is expected to happen is July of this year. When that happens, it's official. But as of now it's looking good.

If this El Nino happens, the major effects on our fishing will come summer of 2015, just like the 1997 El Nino gave us an amazing fishing summer in 1998, and ditto for the 1982 El Nino and the summer fishing in 1983.
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Old 04-07-2014, 10:55 PM   #2
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Re: ENSO Update

The 1982 El Nino was much bigger than the 1997. It ran over a year and was a blessing and a curse.

While we can always use an influx of YT and dorado (Who hates it when that happens??!!)
The drawback is the fact that we are seeing 10X the volume of ling cod and other reef fish like olive rockfish in relatively close and shallow areas, which was much more the norm until the masher El Nino of '82. It caused a lot of problems and coincided with abalone disease which pretty much brought them to their knees. As abs are making a pretty good comeback, I am less excited for a big influx of super warm water.
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Old 04-07-2014, 11:24 PM   #3
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Re: ENSO Update

Get your GoPros ready and your boats dialed in. But dont think you will be shorediving much. There will be a shit ton of rain if and when it happens. Hope some of you guys pole fish still. But catching tuna, monster yellows and other pelagics within a couple of miles from shore is a given. I just want to see the massive schools of bait fish once again.

Its gonna happen no doubt this year. Check the almanac. The water wasnt in the 60's this time last year.
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Old 04-08-2014, 02:51 AM   #4
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Re: ENSO Update

Quote:
Originally Posted by rojodiablo View Post
The 1982 El Nino was much bigger than the 1997. It ran over a year and was a blessing and a curse.

While we can always use an influx of YT and dorado (Who hates it when that happens??!!)
The drawback is the fact that we are seeing 10X the volume of ling cod and other reef fish like olive rockfish in relatively close and shallow areas, which was much more the norm until the masher El Nino of '82. It caused a lot of problems and coincided with abalone disease which pretty much brought them to their knees. As abs are making a pretty good comeback, I am less excited for a big influx of super warm water.
I can't compare the local effects between the two events since I wasn't quite born for the second one. NOAA says the 97 one was bigger but maybe the 82 one hit our local area harder, who knows. I'm just summarizing what the article says.
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Old 04-08-2014, 09:51 AM   #5
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Re: ENSO Update

No need hyping this El Nino until after Spring. Everyone was hyping 2013-2014 as an El Nino year as well last year...and look what happened.

We need a good 1997 type El Nino, it is not likely though.
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Old 04-08-2014, 07:52 PM   #6
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Re: ENSO Update

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Originally Posted by mainphrame View Post
Get your GoPros ready and your boats dialed in. But dont think you will be shorediving much. There will be a shit ton of rain if and when it happens. Hope some of you guys pole fish still. But catching tuna, monster yellows and other pelagics within a couple of miles from shore is a given. I just want to see the massive schools of bait fish once again. Its gonna happen no doubt this year. Check the almanac. The water wasnt in the 60's this time last year.
Water temps locally are NOT a good indicator of an El Nino. The water we have is purely from the jet stream not dipping below B.C. over the winter for more than a momentary dip 2 times all winter. No frozen wind over the ocean- no storms. No storms, no rotation of upwelling, and no southern drift of northern waters. ie.... no really cold water.

As to the schools of baitfish; El Nino does exactly the OPPOSITE. When El Nino is coming, and for real? The anchovy population in Peru/ Chile has a massive die off. It's not showing, so until several other real, honest to goodness oceanic changes happen, all we have are precursor markers of a possible El Nino. Or, what I like to call, El NoShow.
During the last 2 full blown El Ninos, baitfish get real scarce as they do not tolerate 75 degree water very well at all. That is why there are SO many rat sized YT and dorado under paddies; the conditions were good for a spawn and excellent for larval retention, but the baitfish food supply is in general low, as are plankton counts for the baitfish. So you see skinny YT who will charge the boat and eat just about anything you throw at them. Which makes fishing a lot of fun.....!

Kinda like cancer; just because you have a cancer marker or two in your system does not equate to having cancer.
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Old 04-08-2014, 07:58 PM   #7
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Re: ENSO Update

Quote:
Originally Posted by rojodiablo View Post
As to the schools of baitfish; El Nino does exactly the OPPOSITE. When El Nino is coming, and for real? The anchovy population in Peru/ Chile has a massive die off. It's not showing, so until several other real, honest to goodness oceanic changes happen, all we have are precursor markers of a possible El Nino. Or, what I like to call, El NoShow.
During the last 2 full blown El Ninos, baitfish get real scarce as they do not tolerate 75 degree water very well at all. That is why there are SO many rat sized YT and dorado under paddies; the conditions were good for a spawn and excellent for larval retention, but the baitfish food supply is in general low, as are plankton counts for the baitfish. So you see skinny YT who will charge the boat and eat just about anything you throw at them. Which makes fishing a lot of fun.....!
this, el nino es no bueno
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Old 04-09-2014, 03:04 PM   #8
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Re: ENSO Update

[quote=rojodiablo;1940091]Water temps locally are NOT a good indicator of an El Nino. The water we have is purely from the jet stream not dipping below B.C. over the winter for more than a momentary dip 2 times all winter. No frozen wind over the ocean- no storms. No storms, no rotation of upwelling, and no southern drift of northern waters. ie.... no really cold water.


Its going to be very interesting from a climate perspective, for sure. Looks pretty clear at this point that there is a large amount of abnormally warm subsurface water at the equator. Assuming it surfaces, the first generation consequence is that it will pump a lot of extra water vapor into the air. Where that water vapor goes is a second or third generation question at best. Maybe it will land in California, as it has in the past, but the Northern jet has been behaving very differently in the last year than normal, so maybe it won't. All those downstream consequences are very difficult to model and forecast. Whether we get warm water here or not would be in that same category, at least as far as I understand things.

And then all the effects that it would have on our local marine life, even further downstream yet.
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Old 04-16-2014, 12:25 PM   #9
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Re: ENSO Update

From Surfline:

http://www.surfline.com/surf-news/sp...update_108576/
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Old 04-16-2014, 01:22 PM   #10
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Re: ENSO Update

Quote:
Originally Posted by "Yard-Sale Josh" View Post
this, el nino es no bueno
I guess that depends a bit on your latitude
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