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Old 03-10-2020, 01:58 PM   #1
Bob Ballew
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Some Thoughts on Financial Survival

...While this treatise veers off course from spearfishing, it is critical if you are not be able to afford to go diving for the coming season due to the financial collapse we see occurring...I can't tell you what course to take, but, I can tell you what my wife and I are doing and you should do also: MAKE A PLAN!...
...First, cash is KING!...We are building cash as fast as possible. If you have equity buildup in a home or rental property, consider refinancing ALL your assets. We are waiting for the Fed announcement on March 17th to see if rates will drop even more than the 1/2 point drop this week...Rates are at a record low and may drop even more as panic builds...Billionaires have lost billions this week due to stock price collapse...
...BUT...there is a positive side for those who are prepared..this is an opportunity to buy stocks at a very low price and profit on a recovery...which we will do, as we follow tycoon Warren Buffet's advice,..when people panic and sell low, that is the time to buy, not sell...
...If the system shuts down as the virus spreads, a recession is in the works..Workers may not get a paycheck and could lose their homes...Those not prepared may lose their homes but, it will be a opportunity to buy low for those who are prepared.
...We have good retirement checks coming in, but, even then, we may face a reduction in payments should investment returns for our system fail to keep up with outgoing payments to retirees..Our whole economic system depends on spending and consuming to keep it afloat.
...Having been thru a few recessions, we look at it as an investment opportunity, not a loss situation unless there is a total collapse of government and society...In that case, we hand the house keys to the bank and move to another state with no state income tax on our earnings...At worse, we start over..so what...There will always be ups and downs in life but, with preparation and a positive attitude, you can ride the currents and be a survivor. Financially, you can also be a winner.
...If you are a renter, it won't hurt to renegotiate with your landlord for a temporary rent reduction. Landlords know that some money coming is better than a vacancy...In the 2008 recession, thousands of home foreclosures occurred and new homes inland were selling for less than the cost to build them. Smart investors came in, bought up the inventory and rented the homes out...to the very people who lost their homes to foreclosure. As home prices and rents went up, investors made a killing on their ability to see the future. California is a totally different ballgame than the rest of the country. Thanks to our great climate location, it will always be the land of opportunity...
...So, there are opportunities ir-regardless of which way the economy goes...but, you have to follow the formula: Opportunity plus preparation = Success
...Feel free to add to my post...just keep it positive,...or, at least, useful...
... p.s. Speaking of being prepared; on March 9th, a fisherman at the east end of Catalina was fishing rockcod, when a good size mako kept attacking his fish. Then, it attacked his swimstep twice, putting some good bite marks in it. Being prepared made a difference. He promptly gaffed the mako thru the head and the result was mako steaks on the dinner table that night...Unfortunately, in life and in the ocean, you have to make a choice: be a porkchop or, be a survivor....

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Old 03-10-2020, 02:48 PM   #2
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Re: Some Thoughts on Financial Survival

My plan.... Plan for eternity. This world is passing away. wars, ecology, virus, unsustainable farming and ranching, for the current number of people, way too many people. The way this world is turning to violence. the cheating on every level.
The bible describes believers in Christ as pilgrims and sojourners. I'm Not so in love with this world because as believers we are promised a much much better world (contrary to what many hope, its Not for everybody). It is exclusive to those who wholeheartedly put their trust in the saving work that Chris did on the cross. No religion can save any soul. A person is born, flesh and blood. The bible says clearly that flesh and blood cannot inherit the kingdom of God. Jesus told a jewish leader that a man must be born again. Born this time of the Spirit into a saving grace and right relationship with God the Father. The same relationship that we lost when Adam sinned in the garden. No church, no man, no priest, no system can save us. There is only ONE name under heaven whereby men MUST be save.... Jesus! My plan. Remember to keep it positive.
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Old 03-10-2020, 04:39 PM   #3
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Re: Some Thoughts on Financial Survival

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/10/opini...gen/index.html
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Old 03-10-2020, 05:20 PM   #4
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Re: Some Thoughts on Financial Survival

I think this adds to the hysteria. A recession? Really. While some industries will undoubtedly suffer (airlines, travel, stock market) that does not mean the economy as a whole is in bad shape. Construction, agriculture and housing remain strong, energy is at bargain pricing thanks to Russia, Iran and China trying to out low each other, our manufacturing and employment is the highest in decades and growing. Temporary hit that will be solved as soon as another vaccine is available, which is just another deviant of coronavirus of which is a large family of viruses we already have vaccines for! Unnecessary crisis in my opinion.
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Old 03-10-2020, 05:27 PM   #5
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Re: Some Thoughts on Financial Survival

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Originally Posted by SEATUX View Post
Yada Yada Yada.....
Take your imaginary god to the religion and politics section.
You are 72. Very soon you will find out that Tommy was right, and you were very, very wrong. Eternity awaits. Choose wisely...
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Old 03-10-2020, 05:32 PM   #6
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Re: Some Thoughts on Financial Survival

Don't be fat, don't smoke, and you will survive just fine. Oh, and don't believe 3/4 of what you read on CNN.
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Old 03-10-2020, 05:33 PM   #7
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Re: Some Thoughts on Financial Survival

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Originally Posted by mfarrell View Post
I think this adds to the hysteria. A recession? Really. While some industries will undoubtedly suffer (airlines, travel, stock market) that does not mean the economy as a whole is in bad shape. Construction, agriculture and housing remain strong, energy is at bargain pricing thanks to Russia, Iran and China trying to out low each other, our manufacturing and employment is the highest in decades and growing. Temporary hit that will be solved as soon as another vaccine is available, which is just another deviant of coronavirus of which is a large family of viruses we already have vaccines for! Unnecessary crisis in my opinion.
Well said. CNN has a vested interest in whipping up the hysteria. They are hoping it will undermine support for Trump.
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Old 03-10-2020, 05:38 PM   #8
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Re: Some Thoughts on Financial Survival

Bob, I think this is nothing more than the usual - a correction driven by false fears that never turn out as bad as thought, and in a few months the market recognizes this and goes on to new highs.

There is opportunity here - to buy when everyone else is selling. The market is the best place to be for the long haul. These corrections mean nothing in the long term.
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Old 03-10-2020, 06:53 PM   #9
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Re: Some Thoughts on Financial Survival

Quote:
Originally Posted by mfarrell View Post
I think this adds to the hysteria. A recession? Really. While some industries will undoubtedly suffer (airlines, travel, stock market) that does not mean the economy as a whole is in bad shape. Construction, agriculture and housing remain strong, energy is at bargain pricing thanks to Russia, Iran and China trying to out low each other, our manufacturing and employment is the highest in decades and growing. Temporary hit that will be solved as soon as another vaccine is available, which is just another deviant of coronavirus of which is a large family of viruses we already have vaccines for! Unnecessary crisis in my opinion.
The economic numbers the gov't puts out is mostly BS. The Fed Reserve has been propping up the markets for a long time. Every liquidity injection from them over the years has waning efficacy. They can't sustain this w/o implementing negative rates.
This private entity's task is to make money. They do this by creating crashes/booms/busts. They've been doing this since their inception.
Take a look at gold weekly. It hasn't been this high since 2012...looking to test/bust the highs again...mad volume these past couple weeks. Most recommend at least a 10% investment in your physical holdings from your portfolio. It's insurance from a currency crash. Fiat always return to it's original value (zero) and the average length of it's reserve currency status is up. This isn't conjecture. It's not a matter of if...it's when.
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Old 03-10-2020, 09:43 PM   #10
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Re: Some Thoughts on Financial Survival

...What everyone needs to understand, is this is no longer a recession, it is shaping into a depression. Recessions can be fixed with low rates, more spending, creating jobs and tax benefits...A depression, shuts everything down with no movement. It can't be fixed with money until it runs it's course...A depression hit in 1929-1933 and fortunes were lost. Bankers were standing in line with common folk for hours just to get a bowl of soup...Currently, it is most similar to the 1918 flu pandemic that ultimately killed millions of people across the globe. Like now, they had no effective treatment for it and couldn't stop it in time. Based on current estimates, it could take up to a year to find an effective drug treatment and that is probably an overly positive outlook...
...If companies, schools and public places have to go into lockdown mode, no amount of spending will stop the resultant financial chaos. If you can't go to work or retirement checks quit coming, you will go broke unless there is a plan to cope with it....Optimism is great, but, it won't pay your bills if you underestimate the enemy...This is the giant gorilla now in your living room....I hope to hell I am wrong...

If this ends soon, President Trump will claim credit as God's right-hand man. If he gets re-elected, he will claim he is God...(a Ballew original)..

Last edited by Bob Ballew; 03-10-2020 at 10:58 PM.
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Old 03-10-2020, 09:49 PM   #11
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Re: Some Thoughts on Financial Survival

Well said, Bob. This current situation seems to be mirroring the aforementioned one.
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― Frederic Bastiat, The Law
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Old 03-10-2020, 11:14 PM   #12
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Re: Some Thoughts on Financial Survival

Quote:
Originally Posted by tommy7 View Post
My plan.... Plan for eternity. This world is passing away. wars, ecology, virus, unsustainable farming and ranching, for the current number of people, way too many people. The way this world is turning to violence. the cheating on every level.
The bible describes believers in Christ as pilgrims and sojourners. I'm Not so in love with this world because as believers we are promised a much much better world (contrary to what many hope, its Not for everybody). It is exclusive to those who wholeheartedly put their trust in the saving work that Chris did on the cross. No religion can save any soul. A person is born, flesh and blood. The bible says clearly that flesh and blood cannot inherit the kingdom of God. Jesus told a jewish leader that a man must be born again. Born this time of the Spirit into a saving grace and right relationship with God the Father. The same relationship that we lost when Adam sinned in the garden. No church, no man, no priest, no system can save us. There is only ONE name under heaven whereby men MUST be save.... Jesus! My plan. Remember to keep it positive.
Finally somebody is talking some sense around here!!
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Old 03-10-2020, 11:49 PM   #13
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Re: Some Thoughts on Financial Survival

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Originally Posted by SEATUX View Post
Yada Yada Yada.....
Take your imaginary god to the religion and politics section.
X2 what he said
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Old 03-11-2020, 12:03 AM   #14
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Re: Some Thoughts on Financial Survival

I won’t argue with the devine message lest I get struck by lightning where I stand!
But, I am circling like a buzzard waiting for the housing market to collapse. Lets not ignore that most people are not only broke, they owe at least one year’s salary in credit card and auto financing debt. consider that a small, single family home in ghetto-land Bell Gardens, Tweeko Rivera and Huntington Park average $500k- thats a $3000 per month mortgage. Just imagine the prices of other, more affluent cities- $700K to $1.5M are the norm. When folks start getting laid off, (already starting) a great many will walk away from their homes. Your daddy Trump can only do so much! Bob is absolutely right! Stop spending immediately, save your money and wait to pounce!
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Old 03-11-2020, 12:36 AM   #15
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Re: Some Thoughts on Financial Survival

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Ballew View Post
...What everyone needs to understand, is this is no longer a recession, it is shaping into a depression. Recessions can be fixed with low rates, more spending, creating jobs and tax benefits...A depression, shuts everything down with no movement. It can't be fixed with money until it runs it's course...A depression hit in 1929-1933 and fortunes were lost. Bankers were standing in line with common folk for hours just to get a bowl of soup...Currently, it is most similar to the 1918 flu pandemic that ultimately killed millions of people across the globe. Like now, they had no effective treatment for it and couldn't stop it in time. Based on current estimates, it could take up to a year to find an effective drug treatment and that is probably an overly positive outlook...
...If companies, schools and public places have to go into lockdown mode, no amount of spending will stop the resultant financial chaos. If you can't go to work or retirement checks quit coming, you will go broke unless there is a plan to cope with it....Optimism is great, but, it won't pay your bills if you underestimate the enemy...This is the giant gorilla now in your living room....I hope to hell I am wrong...

If this ends soon, President Trump will claim credit as God's right-hand man. If he gets re-elected, he will claim he is God...(a Ballew original)..

You are wrong. In 1918 during the pandemic that killed an estimated 6% of the worlds population, the stock market was up 25.6%. In 1919 it was up 20.7%

The crash of 1929 has nothing to do with the flu of 1918. It was the result of the Smoot-Hawley tariff act.

Everybody needs to calm down. In a few months this will be a memory.

Market returns were universally positive for 6 months, 12 months, and 18 months after SARS, Avian flu, Swine flu, MERS, Ebola-1, Zika, and Ebola-2.

Returns in the stock market averaged for all of these epidemics together at 11.9% after 6 months, 20.6% after 12 months, and 23.1% after 18 months.

This isn't a big enough deal to derail the world's economy. The world economy grows by 3.9 trillion a year. Worst case scenario for coronavirus is less than a trillion. Growth may slow, but it will not go into a recession.
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