Beginning of the end? - Female Voters Abandoning Clinton for Obama!

[SpearMax]

Uhh Oh..........For Hill, is this the beginning of the end?

Female Voters Abandoning Clinton for Obama
Monday, January 7, 2008 8:01 AM

A plurality of female voters in last week's Iowa caucuses picked Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois over Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York, and polls now point to a similar trend unfolding in New Hampshire.

This may be what prompted Clinton to play the gender card in the New Hampshire Democratic debate on Saturday night. She said that her potential to become the first female president helps make her an "agent of change," a characteristic that has polled highly among female Democratic voters.

"But I think I am an agent of change. I embody change," Clinton volunteered in the debate. "I think having the first woman president is a huge change with consequences across our country and the world."

In Iowa, however, the fact that Clinton could become the first female president did not persuade female Democratic voters to support her.

According to the television networks' entrance poll of 2,136 voters attending the Democratic presidential caucuses last Thursday evening, Obama beat Clinton among all female voters 35% to 30%.

The same poll indicated that Clinton beat Obama among married women 32% to 30%, but that Obama beat her by a larger margin among unmarried women who made up a larger share of the vote. Married women comprised only 29% of Democratic caucus goers.

Obama, meanwhile, defeated Clinton 36% to 25% among the 71% of caucus voters who were either unmarried women or males, according to the entrance poll.

This outcome was surprising because polls prior to the Iowa caucuses indicated that Clinton was easily the favorite Democratic candidate among female voters nationwide.

In aggregated returns from Gallup national polls conducted November 30-December 2 and December 14-December 16, for example, Clinton held a 46% to 24% lead over Obama among Democratic and Democratic-leaning women voters. Edwards had 14%. Clinton led Obama 42% to 28% among women 18 to 49 years of age, and 49% to 19% among women 50 and older. These poll numbers carried a margin of error of +/-3 points.

Similarly, in a Pew Research national poll conducted December 19-30, 49% of female Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters preferred Clinton. This poll had a margin of error of +/-5 points.

A report released October 31 by the Democratic polling form of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner indicated that Clinton actually enjoyed super-majority support among unmarried women, one of the very groups that preferred Obama to Clinton at the Iowa caucuses.

"Unmarried women changed Congress in 2006, giving 66 percent of their vote to Democrats," Greenberg Quinlan Rosner reported. "In our latest poll, they give Hillary Clinton 66 percent for president. Unmarried women have the potential to emerge as the 'Democrats' Evangelicals."

Nonetheless, a series of polls in New Hampshire conducted for CNN and WMUR-TV by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center show that Clinton's once massive lead among women in that state has collapsed. With only three days to go before New Hampshire primary, she stood in a statistical tie with Obama among female voters, according to this poll.

The CNN/WMUR poll conducted January 4-5 had Clinton leading Obama among likely female Democratic primary voters by only 33% to 32% -- well within the poll's margin of error if +/-5 points. Additionally, the trend among this voting bloc is moving strongly in Obama's direction.

The CNN/WMUR poll completed September 24, for example, showed Clinton leading Obama 49% to 20% among likely female New Hampshire primary voters, while the same poll completed December 19 showed Clinton still leading Obama 42% to 25% among likely female New Hampshire primary voters.

On Sunday, CNN/WMUR released an update of their poll that tracked voter preferences in New Hampshire through January 6. It showed Obama surging to a 10-point lead over Clinton, 39% to 29%, among all likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters. The report on this updated tracking poll, however, did not include data for the responses from female voters.

The dramatic last-minute shift of female Democratic primary voters toward Obama could be driven by the perception among these voters that Obama is more likely than Clinton to effect "change," as well as the growing belief among New Hampshire Democratic voters in general that Obama is more electable than Clinton.

"Politically, unmarried women drive the mood for change in this country," Greenberg, Quinlan Rosner said in their October 31 report. "Seventy-eight percent of the cohort believes the country is on the wrong track."

"By an 85 percent to 12 percent margin, unmarried women agree, 'I am so frustrated at the way things are going in this country, I will make a point of voting in next year's elections,' over 'I am so frustrated with the politicians and the way things are going in this country that I am thinking about NOT voting in the election,'" the polling firm reported on December 7.

"Fully four in five (80 percent) agree, 'I am hopeful the next election can bring real change in the direction of the country,' compared to 16 percent who believe, 'I am doubtful the next election can bring real change in the direction of the country.'"

In the CNN/WMUR poll completed Sunday -- in which Clinton and Obama were tied among women -- 45% of likely Democratic voters said Obama was the candidate "most likely to bring needed change to the United States." Only 25% said it was Clinton, while 14% said it was Edwards.

When asked which factor was more important in determining their vote "change" or "experience," New Hampshire Democratic voters picked change over experience 67% to 24%.

As of Saturday, female Democratic voters in New Hampshire were giving Obama a slight edge over Clinton when it came to electability. Thirty-seven percent said Obama was the candidate who has the best chance of beating the Republicans in November, 35% said it was Clinton.

(By Sunday, 42% of all likely Democratic voters in New Hampshire were saying Obama was the most electable, and 31% were saying it was Clinton.)

Female Democratic voters in New Hampshire also picked Obama over Clinton, 60% to 19%, as the "most inspiring" candidate.

[DIVERTOM]

To sum all that up "women changed their minds", must be the first time
in recorded history they have done that!!! LOL

[rojodiablo]

So, all the white women in Iowa like the brothas, huh???? No woman I know likes a bitch. No woman I have ever met likes a woman who is a bitch and is in any position above her; ie nobody likes bitchy women bosses, espesially women. And if given a chance, most women won't put a bitchy woman in a position of power over them. Plain and simple. Only reason the nut jobs here in Ca would drop Pelosi in the house?? Easy. She is still useless and ineffective, and under GWB's thumb. She talked it tough, but got smacked down fast and often. She is very ineffective, and it is no accident. Hillary is a dead stick. Time to move on.....

[Oldsarge]

How about the concept that Americans are getting tired of Royal Families? Do we really want an alternation of the Bushes and the Clintons into the middle of the 21st Century? I think not!

[ralphthehalibut]

I think that article might have jumped the gun a bit. SZeems like billary won the primary because of the strong turnout of women voters for her.

[Q]

Originally Posted by ralphthehalibut

I think that article might have jumped the gun a bit. SZeems like billary won the primary because of the strong turnout of women voters for her.

We let woman vote?

[SpearMax]

Originally Posted by ralphthehalibut

I think that article might have jumped the gun a bit. SZeems like billary won the primary because of the strong turnout of women voters for her.

Hmmmm...............this race is finally getting interesting!

Women return to Clinton in N.H.

Exit polls also show that moderates helped propel McCain above rivals
updated 8:43 a.m. ET, Wed., Jan. 9, 2008

WASHINGTON - It was almost as if the candidates were running for president of two different countries. Exit polls showed that rather than reaffirming Iowa's results from five days earlier, New Hampshire voters had their own thoughts about the contenders and the issues.

Of the two parties' victors in New Hampshire on Tuesday, Hillary Rodham Clinton did better than she had last week in Iowa among women, independents and late deciders. On the Republican side, John McCain — who had campaigned sparingly in Iowa — soared among virtually all categories, dwarfing chief rival Mitt Romney on experience, authenticity and other areas.

Most telling was Clinton's performance.

The New York senator went from narrowly losing the women's vote in Iowa to Barack Obama to swamping him in New Hampshire among females, 46 percent to 34 percent. Women had been the anchor of her support in national and regional polling for most of the past year, and she had seemed in danger of springing a leak in her major constituency. This was crucial, since females usually comprise more than half those who vote for Democrats across the country.

'I think she's got the clout'

Independents were a strength for Obama, the young senator from Illinois, who won 41 percent of them in both Iowa and New Hampshire. But while Clinton attracted less than one in five of them in Iowa, she garnered nearly a third of independents in New Hampshire, eating into his advantage.

"I think she's human. I think she's got the clout," said Joyce Connelly, 76, an independent from Laconia, N.H.

That was important because independents were more than four in 10 of those who voted in the New Hampshire Democratic contest — double their portion in Iowa.

People who chose their candidate in the final three days were also kinder to Clinton in New Hampshire, where she and Obama each got more than a third of their vote. In Iowa, the late-deciders had favored Obama by 33 percent to 22 percent.

As if to reaffirm the late decision-makers, about three-quarters of Democrats said the weekend's debates — which included moments when Obama and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards both took her on — played a role in picking a candidate. She had a slight edge over Obama in that group, while the two were about even among those who said the debates were not very important.

Clinton also showed improvement between the two states among people earning less than $50,000 annually. And while Obama had a healthy 51 percent to 28 percent lead over her among under-30 voters, that was less decisive than the 57 percent to 11 percent advantage he held over her with that group in Iowa.


Different race for the GOP

As expected, the Republican race was completely different in New Hampshire than in Iowa, where there were roughly three times as many voters who considered themselves born again or evangelical. That group had helped Mike Huckabee, the Baptist minister and former Arkansas governor, to a victory there.

Romney finished second in both states, but with many categories of voters actually did better in New Hampshire than he had in Iowa. It's just that McCain, who had made little effort in Iowa, did even better than Romney.

Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, went from support of about a quarter of Iowa conservatives to more than one-third in New Hampshire. But that didn't help him much, because there are many fewer conservatives in New Hampshire.

GOP voters picked illegal immigration as the campaign's major issue, and Romney got three in 10 votes from them, losing narrowly to Huckabee in that category. In New Hampshire, Romney got more than half the votes of those worried about immigrants, though the number calling it the top problem shrunk from a third in Iowa to less than a quarter in New Hampshire.

Romney did roughly the same — or better — in New Hampshire than Iowa among people most concerned about three other issues: the Iraq war, the economy and terrorism. But McCain got the support of four in 10 of those voters, better than any other candidate had done on those issues in Iowa.

On the qualities GOP voters were looking for in a candidate, Romney won among those in New Hampshire looking for shared values — better than he did in Iowa. But McCain beat him badly with those seeking experience and a straight shooter — even though Romney did about as well in those areas with voters in both states.

[Scott]

We let woman vote?

That is the real problem. Perfect example -

Last night I was watching the Jon Stewart show. My chick walks in and like the majority of curious whiny women would before looking at the TV herself, cries out "What are you watching?"

I then replied "I'm watching Hillary cry like a baby."

"Why?" She said.

To which I responded, "Because she's a chick and can't handle stress, what the **** is she gonna do when Osama sends over another bomb, sit there and cry?"

So my chick looks over and says "Really? Did Osama get elected already?"

:c onfused:

What the hell do you respond to that kinda crap! Women should definitely not be voting.....ROFL

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